[1]袭祥荣,苗松,夏紫藤.“三孩”政策下山东省城乡托育服务资源供需预测与规划——基于对2023—2050年0~3岁婴幼儿数量的估算[J].集美大学学报(教育科学版),2025,26(03):52-65.
XI Xiangrong,MIAO Song,XIAO Ziteng.Forecast and Planning Suggestions on the Supply and Demand of Urban and Rural Childcare Service Resources in Shandong Province under "the Three-Child" Policy——Based on an Estimate of the Infant Population Aged 0—3 years from 2023 to 2050[J].Journal of Jimei University(Education Science Edition),2025,26(03):52-65.
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“三孩”政策下山东省城乡托育服务资源供需预测与规划——基于对2023—2050年0~3岁婴幼儿数量的估算(PDF)
《集美大学学报(教育科学版)》[ISSN:1671-6493/CN:35-1238/U]
- 卷:
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第26卷
- 期数:
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2025年03期
- 页码:
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52-65
- 栏目:
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教育评价改革研究
- 出版日期:
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2025-06-17
文章信息/Info
- Title:
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Forecast and Planning Suggestions on the Supply and Demand of Urban and Rural Childcare Service Resources in Shandong Province under "the Three-Child" Policy——Based on an Estimate of the Infant Population Aged 0—3 years from 2023 to 2050
- 作者:
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袭祥荣; 苗松; 夏紫藤
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(山东师范大学教育学部,山东 济南 250014)
- Author(s):
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XI Xiangrong; MIAO Song; XIAO Ziteng
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(Faculty of Education,Shandong Normal University,Jinan 250014,China)
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- 关键词:
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“三孩”政策; 托育服务; 城乡资源; 人口预测
- Keywords:
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three-child policy; childcare services; urban and rural resources; population forecast
- 分类号:
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- DOI:
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- 文献标志码:
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A
- 摘要:
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“三孩”政策下,托育服务是激励生育潜力释放的关键。研判山东省托育服务适龄人口及资源供需关系的变化,对优化资源配置、推动经济社会高质量发展意义重大。运用CPPS2020人口预测软件,基于山东省第七次人口普查数据,分城乡人口预测模型结果显示:2023—2050年,山东省0~3岁婴幼儿变化呈“下降—回升—下降”的波浪形态,波谷为2030年,波峰为2043年,且全省和城镇降幅低于升幅,乡村反之。以40%的入托率测算,全省、城镇和乡村的托育服务资源需求变化呈V形,将分别于2043、2045、2041年达峰后回落。基于此,可通过建立托育适龄人口数据共享机制和预测系统、健全普惠性托育服务资源保障机制、构建城乡托育服务资源跨周期精准调节机制、统筹规划不同班级类型的数量规模等策略,应对省域托育服务的资源供需变动。
- Abstract:
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Under the background of the "three-child" policy,childcare services are crucial for releasing the fertility potential.Analyzing the changes in the population of appropriate age for childcare services and the supply-demand relationship of resources in Shandong Province is of great significance for optimizing resource allocation and promoting high-quality economic and social development.With the CPPS2020 population forecasting software and based on the data from the Seventh Census of Shandong Province,the population forecasting models for urban and rural areas separately reveal the following:from 2023 to 2050,the population of infants aged 0-3 in Shandong Province will experience a wave-like pattern of “decline-recovery-decline again,” with a trough in 2030 (2.156 million people) and a peak in 2043 (2.4972 million people).The decline rates in the whole province and urban areas are lower than the increase rates,while the opposite is true for rural areas.With an enrollment rate of 40% estimated,the demand for childcare service resources in the whole province,urban areas,and rural areas will show a V-shaped pattern,peaking in 2043,2045,and 2041 respectively,and then declining.Based on this,strategies such as establishing a data sharing mechanism and prediction system for the population of appropriate age for childcare services,improving the safeguard mechanism for inclusive childcare service resources,constructing a cross-cycle precise adjustment mechanism for childcare service resources between urban and rural areas,and comprehensively planning the quantity and scale of different class types can be adopted to address the changes in the supply and demand of childcare service resources in eastern provinces.
参考文献/References:
相似文献/References:
[1]陈伟,贺芳,郑文.省域城乡托育适龄人口预测及其服务对策——以广东省2023—2040年城乡托育适龄人口为例[J].集美大学学报(教育科学版),2024,25(03):54.
CHEN Wei,HE Fang,ZHEN Wen.A Study on the Prediction of the Urban and Rural Childcare Age Population in the Province Beween 2023 and 2040 and Its Service Strategies: A Case Study of Guangdong[J].Journal of Jimei University(Education Science Edition),2024,25(03):54.
更新日期/Last Update:
2025-06-17