CTMC模型的企业热线话务信道的预测-《集美大学学报（自然科学版）》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Research on Enterprise Hotline Traffic Channel Prediction Based on CTMC Model

Author(s):: YE Xiubin; (School of Information Science and Technology,Xiamen University Tan Kah Kee College,Zhangzhou 363105，China)

Keywords:: CTMC model; customer service hotline; hotline traffic channel ; channel prediction ; system busy rate

摘要:: 为了减少用户接通客服热线电话的等待时间，同时控制企业在客服热线方面的投入成本，结合用户行为，基于企业数据，采用连续时间马尔可夫链(continuous time Markov chain，CTMC)的数学模型对企业热线话务进行信道预测分析，寻求影响信道需求的相关参数。对不同规模企业的话务进行仿真，比对在不同客户量、不同通话保持时间需求、不同通话频率条件下的成功通话率、阻塞通话率及系统占线率，实现一种企业客服热线信道最佳资源配置的预测模型。

Abstract:: To reduce the waiting time for customers to connect to the customer service hotline and control corresponding investment cost of the enterprise,this paper established a continuous time Markov chain(CTMC) mathematical model based on the user behavior and enterprise data,which were used for channel prediction and analysis of enterprise hotline service,for seeking the relevant parameters that affect the channel demand.Through the traffic simulation of different scales of enterprises,comparing the successful call rate,blocking call rate and system occupancy rate under the conditions of different customer volume,different call holding time requirements,and different call frequency,this paper implements a prediction model of channel optimal resource allocation of customer service hotline.