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[1]朱怀伟,刘建舟,柴田.基于级联失效的船舶碰撞事故关键致因链识别[J].集美大学学报(自然科学版),2024,29(2):126-133.
　ZHU Huaiwei,LIU Jianzhou,CHAI Tian.Identification of Key Causal Chains of Ship Collisions Based on Cascade Failure[J].Journal of Jimei University,2024,29(2):126-133.
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基于级联失效的船舶碰撞事故关键致因链识别(PDF)
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《集美大学学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1007-7405/CN:35-1186/N]

卷:
第29卷
期数:
2024年第2期
页码:
126-133
栏目:
航海技术与物流工程
出版日期:
2024-03-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Identification of Key Causal Chains of Ship Collisions Based on Cascade Failure
作者:
朱怀伟; 刘建舟; 柴田
集美大学航海学院，福建 厦门 361021
Author(s):
ZHU Huaiwei; LIU Jianzhou; CHAI Tian
Navigation College,Jimei University,Xiamen 361012,China
关键词:
船舶碰撞事故; 致因链; 级联失效; 复杂网络
Keywords:
ship collision;  causal chain; cascade failure; complex network
分类号:
-
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于级联失效理论，提出一种船舶碰撞事故关键致因链识别方法。首先将船舶碰撞事故致因因素抽象为网络模型，然后设计基于级联失效理论的致因链识别方法，最后利用100起船舶碰撞事故对该方法进行案例分析。结果表明：该方法能够有效识别船舶碰撞事故关键致因链，可为船舶需求优先级管理提供一定的理论依据和决策支持。
Abstract:
In order to reveal the evolution pattern of ship collision causes and effectively prevent ship collision accidents,this paper proposed a key causal chain identification method based on the cascade failure theory.Firstly,the causal factors of ship collision are abstracted into a network model.Secondly,the causal chain identification method based on the cascade failure theory is designed.Finally,100 ship collision accidents are used to analyze this method in a case study.The results of the case study show that this method can effectively identify the key causal chains of ship accidents.It can provide some theoretical basis and decision support for ship demand priority management.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2024-06-05