北极东北航道航行风险的熵变权模糊综合评价-《集美大学学报（自然科学版）》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Navigation Risk Assessment of the Northeast Passage Based on Entropy Variable Weight Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Author(s):: WANG Heng; Navigation College of Jimei University,Xiamen 361021，China

Keywords:: the Northeast Passage; navigation risk assessment; evaluation indicator system; entropy variable weight; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

摘要:: 针对现有北极东北航道航行风险评价中存在的风险等级划分不严谨，固定的风险指标权重未能反映航行风险变化等问题，提出熵变权模糊综合评价模型。首先，根据已有的文献资料和航行实际，筛选风、气温、能见度、海冰等11项指标，建立北极东北航道航行风险评价指标体系，确定航行风险评价的因素集和评价集；接着，从单因素模糊评估出发，得到模糊综合评价矩阵及熵权向量，考虑风险指标权重与风险发生概率及危害后果的关联性，建立风险状态变权系数向量及熵变权向量；然后，构建熵变权模糊综合评价模型，进行模糊综合评价；最后，通过算例进行实证分析。结果表明：该模型相比于常权模型具有更好的适应性及准确性，可作为船舶航行风险评价的有效模型。

Abstract:: For the problems of imprecise risk classification and fixed constant weight evaluation not reflecting the changing risks,the entropy variable weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is proposed to evaluate the changing navigational risks in the the Northeast Passage.Based on existing literature and navigation practices,11 indicators such as wind,temperature,visibility and sea ice are selected to establish the navigation risk assessment indicator system for the Northeast Passage.The factor set and evaluation set for navigation risk assessment are determined,and an entropy variable weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is constructed.Starting from single factor fuzzy evaluation,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation matrix and entropy weight vector are obtained.Considering the correlation between the risk index weight and the risk occurrence probability and hazard consequence,the risk state variable weight coefficient vector and entropy variable weight vector are established,and then fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out.Finally,an empirical analysis is conducted through the example.The results show that the model has better adaptability and accuracy than the constant weight model,and can be used as an effective model for ship’s navigation risk assessment.