[1]汪强,刘晓佳,闫长健,等.基于组合模型的厦门港集装箱吞吐量预测[J].集美大学学报(自然版),2019,24(1):31-36.
 WANG Qiang,LIU Xiaojia,YAN Changjian,et al.Container Throughput Prediction of Xiamen Port Based on Combinatorial Model[J].Journal of Jimei University,2019,24(1):31-36.
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基于组合模型的厦门港集装箱吞吐量预测()
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《集美大学学报(自然版)》[ISSN:1007-7405/CN:35-1186/N]

卷:
第24卷
期数:
2019年第1期
页码:
31-36
栏目:
航海技术与物流工程
出版日期:
2019-01-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Container Throughput Prediction of Xiamen Port Based on Combinatorial Model
作者:
汪强刘晓佳闫长健张荀
(集美大学航海学院,福建 厦门 361021)
Author(s):
WANG QiangLIU XiaojiaYAN ChangjianZHANG Xun
(Navigation College,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China)
关键词:
集装箱吞吐量灰色Verhulst马尔科夫模型厦门港
Keywords:
containert throughputgrey verhulst modelmarkov modelXiamen Port
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为预测厦门港未来集装箱吞吐量,运用灰色Verhulst与马尔科夫组合模型建立厦门港集装箱吞吐量的预测模型,得出厦门港2018—2022年的集装箱吞吐量数据。研究结果表明,组合模型将平均绝对误差由3.74%降低至1.65%,预测精度为一级。预测结果具有较高的可信度,可为厦门港的集装箱未来发展规划提供参考依据。
Abstract:
In order to predict the future development of container throughput of Xiamen Port with high precision,a model combining the Grey Verhulst with Markov is used to establish the forecasting model,and the container throughput data of Xiamen Port from 2018 to 2022 are obtained.The results show that the combined model reduces the average relative error from 3.74% to 1.65% and the prediction accuracy is Level one.The prediction results have higher reliability and can be used as a reference for the planning of container development in Xiamen Port.
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-03-10