省域城乡托育适龄人口预测及其服务对策——以广东省2023—2040年城乡托育适龄人口为例-《集美大学学报（教育科学版）》

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Title:: A Study on the Prediction of the Urban and Rural Childcare Age Population in the Province Beween 2023 and 2040 and Its Service Strategies: A Case Study of Guangdong

作者:: 陈伟; 贺芳; 郑文; 惠州学院教育科学学院，广东惠州 516007

Author(s):: CHEN Wei; HE Fang; ZHEN Wen; School of Education Science, Huizhou University, Huizhou 516007,China

关键词:: “三孩”政策; 托育服务; 城乡资源需求; 人口预测

Keywords:: “three child” policy; childcare services; urban and rural resource demand; population forecast

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DOI:: -

文献标志码:: A

摘要:: 基于全国第七次人口普查数据，运用分城乡队列要素预测法，分高、中、低3个方案预测“三孩”生育政策下广东省2023—2040年城乡托育适龄人口规模，并估算托育位、托育机构、不同类型班级、保育师资、托育活动室内外活动场地等资源需求规模。中方案预测表明，2023、2040年广东全省城镇、乡村托育服务适龄人口降幅分别为36.5%、30.4%、55.8%。但在不断调高的托育政策目标的驱动下，随着人民群众对高质量托育服务的需求日益强劲，托育服务资源需求将在一定时期内逆向增长、持续扩大。全省托育位需求量从2023年的46.08万个快速增长至2035年的104.64万个，后缓慢下降小幅反弹至2040年的100.63万个。为了实现托育服务高质量发展，应建立稳健的托育服务发展常态化监测机制、优化城乡托育服务资源配置、多渠道供给普惠托育服务、多种方式培养和补充保育员。

Abstract:: Based on the data from the seventh national population census, the prediction method of urban-rural queue elements was used to predict the size of the urban and rural childcare eligible population in Guangdong Province from 2023 to 2040 under the “three-child” policy, divided into three schemes: high, medium, and low. The resource demand scale for childcare spaces, childcare institutions, different types of classes, childcare teachers, indoor and outdoor childcare activity venues was estimated. According to the forecast of the central plan, the decline in the eligible population for childcare services in Guangdong Province, urban and rural areas in 2023 and 2040 will be 36.5%, 30.4%, and 55.8%, respectively. But driven by the constantly increasing goals of childcare policies, and with the increasing demand for high-quality childcare services from the people, the demand for childcare service resources will grow in reverse and continue to expand for a certain period of time. The demand for childcare spaces in the province has rapidly increased from 460800 in 2023 to 1.0464 million in 2035, and then slowly declined and rebounded slightly to 1.0063 million in 2040. In order to achieve high-quality development of childcare services, it is necessary to establish a stable and normalized monitoring mechanism for childcare service development, optimize the allocation of urban and rural childcare service resources, provide universal childcare services through multiple channels, and cultivate and supplement childcare workers in various ways

《集美大学学报（教育科学版）》[ISSN:1671-6493/CN:35-1238/U]

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