中国男排超级联赛制胜因素研究-《体育科学研究》

文章信息/Info

Author(s):: ZHAO Xi-tang1; ZHANG Ming2; LI Xiao-kun1; 2; （1.Nanjing Sport Institute, Nanjing 210014，China; 2.Beijing Sport University, Beijing 100084，China）

Keywords:: Chinese Men’s volleyball; super league; winning factor; discriminant analysis

摘要:: 为了确定哪些因素在中国男排超级联赛中对比赛的制胜具有重要意义，研究对中国排球协会官网统计的2018—2019赛季中国男排超级联赛的比赛数据进行分析，结果表明：2018—2019赛季中国男排超级联赛决定比赛胜负的重要因素分别为防反得分、接发球失误次数、进攻被拦死次数、进攻得分率，上述各因素对优势比的贡献分别为1.27倍、0.66倍、0.80倍和1.14倍。非标准化判别函数“F2=-3.178+0.115×防反得分-0.167×接发球失误-0.112×进攻被拦死+5.082×扣球得分率”可以对原始数据进行直接判断，且对胜负预测的准确率达到了85.3%。对相关数据的进一步分析得出，减少失分与加强得分在比赛中同等重要。发球与拦网技术的得失权衡提示：在对发球与拦网技术的失分有一定容忍度的前提下，可着重提高运动员发球与拦网技术的得分能力。

Abstract:: In order to find out which factors are important for the success in the Chinese Men’s Volleyball Super League(CMVSL), or which skill factors are better in predicting the results of the Chinese Men’s Volleyball Super League, this paper used the statistics of the Chinese Men’s Volleyball Super League in the 2018-2019 season, which were given on the official website of the China Volleyball Association, and used the method of discriminant analysis to analyze the relevant data. The results showed that the main winning factors of the CMVSL in 2018-2019 were the break points, the reception errors, the blocked scores and the scoring rate of attack. Every reception and blocked ball error decreased the possibility of winning by 0.66 and 0.80 times, respectively; every break point and one percent scoring rate of attack increased the possibility of winning by 1.27 and 1.14 times, respectively. The Non-standardized discriminant function was F2=-3.178+0.115×break points-0.167×reception errors-0.112×blocked balls+5.082×scoring rate of attack. By using the raw data, the function showed that the correct rate of judging the result of a game is 85.3%. The result showed that it was very important to manage the errors and increase the scoring ability. Coach could adopt the following strategies in the volleyball games, improving the scoring ability of the service and blocking with tolerating certain service and blocking errors.