|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]王乐林,真虹,周德全.航运市场景气灯预警系统的研究[J].集美大学学报(自然科学版),2010,15(3):199-203.
　WANG Yue-lin,ZHEN HongZHOU De-quan.On the Semaphore Early Warning System for Shipping Market[J].Journal of Jimei University,2010,15(3):199-203.
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航运市场景气灯预警系统的研究(PDF)
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《集美大学学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1007-7405/CN:35-1186/N]

卷:
第15卷
期数:
2010年第3期
页码:
199-203
栏目:
航海技术与物流工程
出版日期:
2010-05-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
On the Semaphore Early Warning System for Shipping Market
作者:
王乐林; 真虹; 周德全
(上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海 200135)
Author(s):
WANG Yue-lin; ZHEN HongZHOU De-quan
(Transport School,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 200135,China)
关键词:
航运市场; 预警系统; 景气灯; 时差相关分析
Keywords:
semaphore; time difference relevance; early warning system; shipping market
分类号:
-
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
-
摘要:
］为了使航运市场中各方能够更好地进行资源调配，规避发展中的风险，构建了一个关于航运市场的景气预警体系.选取了能够客观反映航运市场景气程度的指标，在确立BDI为航运市场基准指标的基础上，将市场分为“过冷”、“冷”、“正常”、“热”、“过热”5种情况，然后基于历年相关统计数据，利用K—L信息量法、时差相关分析法等统计分析方法，对指标按先行、一致、滞后进行划分；同时利用X-12ARIMA，t分布检验等方法对指标的分布进行定量研究，并借鉴了交通系统中的信号灯系统，使该预警系统更加直观
Abstract:
In order for the shipping market to better allot its resources and cut its risks,a semaphore early warning system for shipping market was proposed.The paper adopted several series of indicators to reflect the conditions of the shipping market,and,based on the benchmark BDI,divided those conditions into five defined market segments.According to the related statistical data and by some statistical analysis methods such as time difference relevance and Kullback Leiber information distance，the researcher selected and divided the benchmarks into three defined series:leading indicators,coincident indicators and lagging indicators.Using the X-12ARIMA and distribution test, quantitative research and analysis were conducted on the directors and then a semaphore early warning system of shipping market was built

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
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更新日期/Last Update: 2014-06-28