产业结构升级与经济增长：基于面板门槛分析-《集美大学学报》（哲社版）

文章信息/Info

Title:: Industrial Structure Upgrading and Economic Growth:Based on a Panel Threshold Analysis

Author(s):: SHI Ai-hu1; YU Hai-xia2; (1.Economics Department，Chengyi College Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China;2.College of Finance and Economics,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China)

Keywords:: advanced industrial structure; rationalization of industrial structure; economic growth; panel threshold; regression

摘要:: 当前，调整产业结构、促进产业结构转型升级为经济增长提供新动能是中国经济发展的重中之重。产业结构升级不仅包括产业结构的高级化，还包括产业结构的合理化。以2001—2018年我国30个省、自治区、直辖市的产业结构数据和经济增长数据为分析样本，建立以产业结构合理化为门槛变量，产业结构高级化影响经济增长的面板门槛回归模型。研究发现，只有在产业结构处于合理化区间时，产业结构高级化才能促进经济增长，反之则会抑制经济增长；东部经济发达地区的产业结构合理化程度高于中西部地区，这也给各地区促进经济高质量发展提供了新的思路，政府应根据自身资源配置情况来制定产业政策。

Abstract:: At present,adjusting the industrial structure and promoting the transformation and the upgrading of the industrial structure to provide new drivers for economic growth are the top priorities of China’s economic development.The industrial structure upgrade includes not only the advancement but also the rationalization of industrial structure.This paper takes as analysis samples industrial structure data and economic growth data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2001 to 2018,and establishes a panel threshold regression model with the rationalization of industrial structure as threshold variable and the effect of the advanced industrial structure on economic growth.It is found that only when the industrial structure is in a reasonable range can the advanced industrial structure promote economic growth.Moreover,the rationalization of industrial structure in the economically developed eastern regions is higher than that in the central and western regions,which also provides a new way of thinking for each region to promote high-quality economic development.The government should formulate industrial policies according to its own resource allocation.