区域物流生命力评价与时空演化研究——以长江三角洲为例-《集美大学学报》（哲社版）

文章信息/Info

Title:: Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Evolution of Regional Logistics Vitality: Taking the Yangtze River Delta as an Example

Author(s):: YIN Yang1; YE Chong2; 1.Fuzhou University Zhicheng College,2. School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University

Keywords:: life cycle theory; regional logistics; vitality; Yangtze River delta

摘要:: 为了进一步分析长江三角洲区域物流发展水平与空间差异、完善区域物流可持续发展的提升路径，借助生命周期理论，构建区域物流生命力指标体系。通过Lotka-Volterra 模型分别计算出长江三角洲41个城市2011—2021年区域物流生命力指数，探讨区域物流生命力及其构成指数的空间格局特征与规律;通过空间自相关模型反映区域物流生命力时空演化格局，为长江三角洲区域物流未来发展提供政策建议。研究发现：2011—2021年长江三角洲41个城市区域物流生命力呈上升趋势，具有明显的地理空间分异特征；41个城市区域物流生命周期趋于成熟，各类型区域物流呈现明显的时序差异性，初级型区域逐步减少，发育型与和成熟型区域不断增加；区域物流整体能力有序提升，但空间关联性逐步呈现离散态势，由一家独大转为区域协调发展。

Abstract:: In order to further analyze the regional logistics development and spatial differences in the Yangtze River Delta, improve the sustainable development path of regional logistics, based on the life cycle theory, an index system of regional logistics vitality is constructed, the 2011-2021 regional logistics vitality index of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta is calculated by Lotka-Volterra model, and the spatial pattern characteristics and rules of regional logistics vitality and its component index are discussed. The spatial autocorrelation model reflects the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of regional logistics vitality, and provides policy suggestions for the future development of regional logistics in the Yangtze River Delta. The results showed that the regional logistics vitality of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta showed an increasing trend from 2011 to 2021, with obvious geographical spatial differentiation. The life cycle of urban regional logistics tended to be mature, and each type of regions presented obvious temporal differences. The primary type of regional logistics gradually decreased, while the development type and mature type of regional logistics increased continuously. The overall capacity of regional logistics improved in an orderly way, but the spatial correlation gradually showed a discrete trend, from a dominant country to regional coordinated development.